Solving the Heat Puzzle: Unraveling the Causes and Effects of Rising Temperature in Africa - Sudan and Uganda Case Study

Africa, a continent renowned for its diverse landscapes and vibrant cultures, now faces an urgent challenge: rising temperatures. As the global climate crisis intensifies, the African continent finds itself grappling with the far-reaching consequences of escalating heat. This article delves into the complex web of causes and effects surrounding the increasing temperatures in Africa, with a particular focus on the case studies of Sudan and Uganda. By examining scientific evidence, exploring the impacts on agriculture, health, and the economy, and discussing adaptation and mitigation strategies, we aim to shed light on this critical issue that threatens the well-being of millions across the continent.

In this article, we will begin by exploring the climate impacts in Sudan and Uganda, two countries that serve as poignant examples of the challenges faced by African nations in the face of rising temperatures. We will then examine the scientific evidence behind this phenomenon, investigating the causes of increasing temperatures and their far-reaching effects on agriculture, public health, and economic stability. Finally, we will discuss potential adaptation and mitigation strategies that could help African countries build resilience against the impacts of climate change.

Climate Impact in Sudan

Sudan, a country grappling with the severe consequences of climate change, faces a multitude of challenges that threaten its population's well-being and stability. The nation ranks among the ten most vulnerable countries to climate change worldwide [6], with floods and droughts being the most frequent and devastating climate hazards. Between 2017 and 2021, floods affected an average of 388,600 people each year [6], while the most significant drought in recent years occurred in 2015, affecting most of the country [6].

The impacts of climate change have far-reaching consequences for Sudan's population:

1. Food Insecurity: The World Food Programme estimates that 20.3 million people in Sudan are facing high levels of acute food insecurity [7]. Between October 2023 and February 2024, 17.7 million people are expected to experience IPC Phase 3 or above, the highest ever documented number [7].
2. Displacement and Conflict: Climate change has heightened competition for access to water sources, pastures, and traditional grazing lands, leading to fresh cycles of intercommunal conflict [6]. The conflict in Sudan has led to a significant increase in internal displacement and cross-border movements, with over 1.7 million mixed cross-border movements recorded [7].
3. Economic Decline: The conflict has disrupted supply chains and markets, causing a drastic increase in the prices of food and essential commodities [7]. According to International Monetary Fund projections, Sudan's GDP is expected to decline by 18.3 per cent in 2024 [7].
4. Health Risks: 6,600 suspected cholera cases have been reported in the country, and about sixty-five percent of the population lacks access to healthcare [7].

To address these challenges, the Sustainable Natural Resources Management Project (SSNRMP) in Sudan aims to adopt sustainable land and water management practices while increasing communities' resilience and capacity to cope with climate impacts [4]. The project has provided 15 tons of seed varieties to more than 47,000 beneficiaries, of which more than 34% are female [4], and has rehabilitated 20,687.5 ha of land during Phase 1, exceeding the original target [4].

Climate Impact in Uganda

Uganda has experienced a significant rise in the frequency and severity of extreme weather events, with over 200,000 deaths and at least $80 million in economic losses between 1900 and 2018 [12]. The average temperature in the country has increased by 1.3°C since the 1960s, leading to:

1. Glacier melting in the Rwenzori Mountains
2. Frequent flooding
3. Ecosystem degradation [13]

The changing climate has also resulted in increased occurrences of various diseases, including:

• Water-borne diseases
• Vector-borne diseases
• Respiratory diseases
• Malnutrition-related illnesses
• Malaria [13]

Uganda has committed to reducing national greenhouse gas emissions by 22% by 2030 [14]. The country has launched its National Climate Change Policy 2015 and submitted Nationally Determined Contributions to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change in 2018 [14]. Additionally, Uganda has signed up to meet the Bonn Challenge [14].

Local governments are also taking action to mitigate the effects of climate change:

• Kasese District in Western Uganda has embarked on tree and grass planting to trap emissions and constructed trenches in hilly areas to reduce the speed of run-offs during heavy rainfall [14].
• The government is promoting the use of energy-saving technologies in upcountry areas [14].
• Local government officials have been trained on climate change and disaster risk screening tools to make budget tagging and climate risk assessment easier and more systematic [15].

Climate change presents significant direct and indirect health implications for Ugandans. Rising temperatures and shifting rainfall patterns are expected to increase the prevalence and distribution of various diseases, including [16]:

1. Malaria
2. Lymphatic filariasis
3. Schistosomiasis
4. Soil-transmitted helminthes
5. Trachoma
6. Waterborne diseases (e.g., cholera and typhoid)

Climate change may also introduce new diseases to Uganda, such as dengue fever, chikungunya, and Rift Valley fever [16]. Malnutrition and HIV/AIDS will likely worsen the impact of climate change on health, as they reduce people's resilience to disease [16]. Furthermore, heat-related illnesses, such as heat exhaustion and heat stroke, are expected to increase due to rising temperatures [17].

Scientific Evidence

Africa is experiencing a significant increase in temperature, with some regions warming faster than the global average. Observed surface temperatures have increased by about 1°C since the late 19th century, with some regions experiencing a 3°C increase [23]. Climate models predict:

1. Increased frequency and intensity of droughts and heavy rainfall events [23]
2. Median temperature increase of 1.4-5.5°C by the end of the 21st century [22]
3. Median precipitation change of -2% to 20% by the end of the 21st century [22]

The IPCC Sixth Assessment Report, coordinated by Christopher H. Trisos (South Africa), Ibidun O. Adelekan (Nigeria), and Edmond Totin (Benin), highlights the impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability of Africa to climate change [2]. The report reveals that climate change has already resulted in:

• Widespread losses and damages attributable to human-induced climate change
• Biodiversity loss
• Water shortages
• Reduced food production
• Loss of lives
• Reduced economic growth

Between 1.5°C and 2°C global warming, negative impacts are projected to become widespread and severe, including:

• Reduced food production
• Reduced economic growth
• Increased inequality and poverty
• Biodiversity loss
• Increased human morbidity and mortality [2]

Climate change poses significant threats to various sectors in Africa:

1. Agriculture: Climate change threatens livestock production and African marine and freshwater fisheries [2].
2. Health: Exposure to non-optimal temperatures, extreme weather, and increased range and transmission of infectious diseases negatively impacts the health of tens of millions of Africans [2].
3. Infrastructure: Exposure of people, assets, and infrastructure to climate hazards is increasing, compounded by rapid urbanization, infrastructure deficit, and growing population in informal settlements [2].
4. Biodiversity: Increasing CO2 levels and climate change are destroying marine biodiversity, reducing lake productivity, and changing animal and vegetation distributions [2].
5. Conflict: There is increasing evidence linking increased temperatures and drought to conflict risk in Africa [25].

Causes of Rising Temperatures

Africa's vulnerability to climate change is exacerbated by a complex interplay of socioeconomic, political, and environmental factors [2]. These factors contribute to the continent's exposure to climate hazards and limit its adaptive capacity, making it more susceptible to the adverse impacts of rising temperatures.

Some of the key factors driving Africa's vulnerability include:

1. Poverty and inequality: Many African countries have high levels of poverty and inequality, which limit access to resources and services needed for adaptation, such as healthcare, education, and infrastructure [2].
2. Dependence on climate-sensitive sectors: Agriculture, which is highly sensitive to climate variability, is a major source of livelihood for many Africans. Changes in temperature and precipitation patterns can significantly impact crop yields and food security [2].
3. Rapid urbanization and population growth: Africa's rapid urbanization and population growth have led to the expansion of informal settlements and increased pressure on urban infrastructure, making these areas more vulnerable to climate hazards [2].
4. Limited institutional capacity: Many African countries have limited institutional capacity to effectively respond to and manage climate risks, due to factors such as inadequate financial resources, weak governance structures, and limited access to technology and data [2].

These underlying vulnerabilities amplify the impacts of climate change in Africa, leading to widespread losses and damages across various sectors, including biodiversity, water resources, food production, human health, and economic development [2]. Addressing these vulnerabilities is crucial for building resilience and enabling effective adaptation to the rising temperatures and other climate hazards facing the continent.

Effects on Agriculture

Rising temperatures due to climate change pose a significant threat to agricultural systems and farmer livelihoods globally [29]. High temperatures can reduce farmers' crop income, but the adoption of sustainable practices has the potential to offset this negative impact [11]. Adaptation strategies, such as modernizing agriculture, investing in irrigation systems, and improving infrastructure, are crucial for addressing the challenges posed by climate change in the agricultural sector [30].

Climate change can affect agriculture in various ways, including:

1. Reduced crop yields due to higher temperatures and increased evapotranspiration [29]
2. Both positive and negative effects of carbon emissions on agriculture, with developing countries expected to suffer the most [29]
3. Disruptions in agricultural production and added stress on households due to El Niño conditions, which were declared on June 8, 2023 [7]

The impact of climate change on crop yields in sub-Saharan Africa is largely negative, with projections indicating:

• Up to 72% of the current yield projected to decline for wheat
• Up to 45% yield reductions expected for maize, rice, and soybean by the end of the century [22]

To mitigate the long-term impacts of climate change on agricultural sectors, the development of small-scale irrigation systems and water harvesting structures seems promising [22]. However, if left unaddressed, higher temperatures can negatively impact agriculture, leading to reduced crop yields and food shortages, which in turn can result in malnutrition and undernutrition-related health issues [31].

Health Risks

Rising temperatures due to climate change pose significant health risks to the populations of Sudan and Uganda. Further global warming is expected to escalate mortality and morbidity, placing additional strain on already overburdened health systems [24]. The impacts of climate change on health are multifaceted and far-reaching:

1. Infectious Diseases: Higher temperatures can lead to increased transmission and spread of infectious diseases, such as malaria, dengue fever, and cholera. In Sudan, 6,600 suspected cholera cases have been reported, highlighting the severity of the situation [7].
2. Respiratory Issues: Reduced air quality due to increased temperatures can lead to respiratory issues and other health problems [17]. Exposure to air pollutants, such as ozone and particulate matter, can exacerbate asthma, allergies, and other respiratory conditions.
3. Inadequate Healthcare Access: Approximately sixty-five percent of Sudan's population lacks access to healthcare [7], making them more vulnerable to the health impacts of climate change. Limited access to healthcare services, coupled with the increased burden of climate-related health issues, can lead to higher morbidity and mortality rates.

To mitigate the health risks associated with rising temperatures, it is crucial for Sudan and Uganda to:

• Strengthen their health systems and improve access to healthcare services
• Implement early warning systems for climate-related health threats
• Promote public health education and awareness campaigns
• Invest in research to better understand the health impacts of climate change and develop effective adaptation strategies

By addressing the health risks posed by rising temperatures, Sudan and Uganda can protect the well-being of their populations and build resilience in the face of the ongoing climate crisis.

Economic Implications

Climate change has led to widespread economic losses and damages in Africa, affecting various sectors such as biodiversity, water resources, food production, and overall economic growth [2]. In Sudan, the conflict has disrupted supply chains and markets, causing a drastic increase in the prices of food and essential commodities [7]. According to International Monetary Fund projections, Sudan's GDP is expected to decline by 18.3 per cent in 2024 [7].

The economic implications of rising temperatures in African countries, including Sudan and Uganda, are significant:

1. A 1°C increase in temperature results in a 1.58% decrease in economic growth [33].
2. A temperature shock causes a 3.22% reduction in economic growth [33].
3. A 1% alteration in rainfall leads to a 6.7% change in economic growth [33].
4. Proximity effects influence the impact of climate change on economic growth [33].

Uganda faces substantial economic challenges due to climate change:

• Agriculture, which accounts for 40% of GDP, employs 80% of the labor force, and supplies 85% of exports, is mainly rain-fed with only 1% supported by irrigation [18].
• Annual impact costs are estimated at US$ 3.2-5.9 billion if no adaptation measures are taken [18].
• Uganda requires US$ 28.1 billion to implement adaptation and mitigation needs up to 2030 [18].

Despite these challenges, Uganda has a market economy, ideal climate, ample arable land, a young and English-speaking population, and significant oil reserves [34]. However, economic recovery in 2022 was hindered by rising commodity prices due to supply chain shocks and the Russia-Ukraine war [34]. The power, agricultural, construction, infrastructure, technology, and healthcare sectors present attractive opportunities for U.S. business and investment [34], but issues such as poor economic management, endemic corruption, growing sovereign debt, and weak rule of law create risks for investors [34].

Adaptation and Mitigation Strategies

Adaptation in Africa has multiple benefits, and most assessed adaptation options have medium effectiveness at reducing risks for present-day global warming [2]. However, climate-related research in Africa faces severe data constraints and inequalities in funding and research leadership, reducing adaptive capacity [2]. Adaptation costs will rise rapidly with global warming, and increased public and private finance flows, direct access to multilateral funds, strengthening project pipeline development, and shifting more finance to project implementation would help realize transformative adaptation in Africa [2].

Several African countries have made progress in developing adaptation strategies and plans:

1. Kenya has successfully developed an integrated Measuring, Reporting, and Verification (MRV) system for adaptation actions, involving both state and non-state actors [15].
2. Only 22 African countries provide detailed information regarding the financial resources needed to implement their specific adaptation goals [15].
3. Including financial needs in NDCs and NAPs allows countries to strategically plan and prioritize their adaptation actions, attract support, and mobilize resources from international donors, development agencies, and financial institutions [15].

However, challenges remain in integrating adaptation strategies with disaster risk reduction (DRR) initiatives and prioritizing adaptation actions across key sectors:

• Less than 40% of African countries in the study had tangible links between their DRR initiatives and their adaptation strategies [15].
• The three most frequently identified priority sectors for adaptation in Africa are Agriculture and Livestock, Water, and Health [15].
• One-third of African coastal nations have not prioritized adaptation actions in their blue economies [15].

Financing adaptation to climate change will be more cost-effective than frequent disaster relief [32]. Stepped up financial support from development partners, beyond disaster relief, targeting resilience building and bolstering coping mechanisms will be critical [32]. However, a regional climate change strategy or plan does not exist [35], highlighting the need for coordinated efforts across the continent to address the impacts of rising temperatures and build resilience in vulnerable communities.

Conclusion

The rising temperatures in Africa, particularly in Sudan and Uganda, pose significant challenges to the continent's population, agriculture, health, and economy. As the scientific evidence indicates, climate change is expected to exacerbate these impacts, leading to increased food insecurity, displacement, conflict, and economic decline. Addressing these challenges requires a concerted effort from governments, international organizations, and local communities to develop and implement effective adaptation and mitigation strategies.

African countries must prioritize building resilience against the impacts of climate change by strengthening their health systems, investing in sustainable agricultural practices, and promoting the use of energy-saving technologies. By taking proactive measures to address the causes and effects of rising temperatures, African nations can protect the well-being of their populations and ensure a more sustainable future for generations to come.

FAQs

Q: How is the climate in Uganda and East Africa changing due to global warming?
A: Uganda, which has a tropical climate with stable rainfall patterns, is now experiencing a shift due to climate change. The country faces altered rain seasons, with periods of rain becoming shorter or longer, and more intense droughts, particularly in eastern and north-eastern regions.

Q: What strategies are being implemented to combat climate change in Uganda?
A: Uganda is tackling climate change by adopting more efficient and eco-friendly land use practices. This includes organic farming, protecting sensitive ecosystems such as wetlands, increasing green spaces, and promoting sustainable construction methods.

Q: What measures can be taken to address climate change in South Africa?
A: To address climate change in South Africa, efforts are focused on several key areas: transitioning to clean and renewable energy sources, promoting sustainable transportation, reducing air pollution, enhancing waste management and recycling, conserving seas and oceans, and embracing a circular economy.

Q: What impact has the increase in temperatures had on Africa?
A: Rising temperatures in Africa have led to environmental changes as predicted by current climate models, including more frequent and severe droughts, heavier rainfall events, and overall decreases in average precipitation across the continent, all of which are expected with medium to high confidence.