PLU and the 2026 Uganda Elections: A Comprehensive Review

As Uganda gears up for the 2026 elections, a comprehensive review of the political landscape, historical context, and electoral significance is crucial. The Electoral Commission (EC) has released a roadmap for the upcoming elections, which are projected to be the most expensive in the nation's history, with an estimated cost of Ush1.3 trillion ($354.8 million) [1]. This news has sparked discussions among scholars, leaders, and citizens about the challenges and opportunities that lie ahead.

The article will delve into various aspects of the 2026 Uganda elections, including the role of security forces, opposition parties, electoral reforms, voter registration, and the impact of social media and digital campaigning. It will also examine the international community's involvement and the importance of electoral observation in ensuring free and fair elections. Throughout the article, the focus will be on providing a balanced and informative analysis of the key issues surrounding the elections, drawing on the latest news, academic research, and expert opinions.

The Roadmap to 2026: Uganda's Political Landscape

The Electoral Commission of Uganda has released a comprehensive roadmap for the 2026 General Elections, emphasizing early preparations and adequate funding for all activities [2]. The roadmap, launched by Prime Minister Robinah Nabbanja, aims to ensure the smooth implementation of electoral processes and strengthen citizen participation in democratic processes [2, 8].

Key milestones in the roadmap include:

1. Demarcation of electoral areas by July 2024 [2]
2. General update of the National Voters' Register by January 2025 [2]
3. Nomination of Presidential candidates between 2nd and 3rd October 2025 [2]
4. Elections scheduled for January 12 to February 9, 2026 [2]

The 2026 Ugandan elections are projected to be the most expensive ever, with an estimated cost of Ush1.3 trillion ($354.8 million) [1, 3]. The number of voters is expected to rise from 18 million in 2021 to 24 million in 2026, potentially resulting in each vote costing approximately Shs 50,000 (US$ 14) [3]. The elections are expected to be held in a securitized environment, with a significant presence of security forces and agencies [7].

The main contenders in the 2026 elections are expected to be the incumbent President Yoweri Museveni, who will be 81 years old, and the opposition leader Robert Kyagulanyi Ssentamu, popularly known as Bobi Wine, who will be 43 years old [4]. The Democratic Party (DP) has also released an electoral roadmap for the party's rebuilding processes ahead of the 2026 general elections [5].

Historical Context and Electoral Significance

Uganda's electoral history dates back to 1958 when the first direct elections were held with limited African/Ugandan franchise and representation to the Legislative Council (LEGCO) [9]. In 1961, direct elections were held, and two political parties, the Democratic Party (DP) and the Uganda People's Congress (UPC), contested [9]. The following year, fresh elections were held, and Buganda Kingdom was granted its request to hold indirect elections, leading to the formation of the first-ever internal self-government, headed by Chief Minister Benedict Kiwanuka [9].

Key milestones in Uganda's electoral history include:

1. The first Referendum in 1964, determining whether the counties of Buyaga and Bugangaizi should remain in Buganda or be returned to Bunyoro Kingdom [9].
2. A hiatus in elections from 1964 to 1980 due to political crises and military rule [9].
3. The first multi-party elections since 1962 in 1980, with disputed results leading to a guerilla war [9].
4. The 'no-party' system of governance, also known as the Movement system, from 1986 to 2005 [9, 11].
5. The enactment of the Electoral Commission Act in 1997, establishing a permanent and independent election management body [9].
6. The 2005 referendum, in which Ugandans voted to adopt a multiparty system of governance [9, 11].

The 2016 general elections saw over 10.3 million citizens casting their votes at 28,010 polling stations, with a voter turnout of 63.5% [12]. Incumbent President Yoweri Museveni won the presidential contest with 60.75% [12]. The upcoming 2026 elections are set to be significant, with Ugandans living and working in the Diaspora and prisoners allowed to participate for the first time [10, 11].

The Role of Security Forces in Uganda's Elections

Uganda's security forces, led by President Yoweri Museveni, have a significant influence on the country's politics, with an estimated 55,000 personnel [1, 14]. The military, police, and intelligence agencies are centralized and united by Museveni's influence, control, and vision [7, 14]. This has led to the politicization of soldiers and the involvement of security forces in partisan political contestation within Uganda's borders [7, 14].

The security forces' role in Uganda's electoral process has been contentious:

1. The UPDF has representatives in parliament and maintains a political commissar position responsible for the political education of UPDF officers [7, 14].
2. The office of the Resident District Commissioner (RDC) has evolved from a civil servant role to a political appointee role, serving and protecting the presidency [14]. RDCs are involved in partisan politics, harassing and detaining opposition political actors, profiling alleged opposition supporters, and directing security agents at the district level [14].
3. Security forces have been used to interfere with elections and harass opposition politicians [7, 16]. During the recent elections, they targeted journalists, arresting, beating, or confiscating their equipment, with over 100 attacks reported since November [15].

The actions of security forces during elections have raised concerns about human rights abuses and the need for reforms:

• Uganda's security forces have been involved in widespread violence and human rights abuses during elections, resulting in at least 54 deaths [15].
• The army has disregarded civilian laws and procedures, undermining the police leadership in its law enforcement role and the distinction between use of force standards during peacetime and wartime [17].
• Experts suggest amending the Uganda Defence Forces Act to ensure appropriate equipment, training, and human rights standards for military personnel deployed for law enforcement tasks [17]. Additionally, the police should receive more training and equipment, including protective equipment, to facilitate de-escalated and graduated use of force [17].

Opposition Parties and the Challenge Ahead

Opposition parties in Uganda face significant challenges as they prepare for the 2026 general elections. The concentration of power in President Museveni's hands, who currently utilizes the armed forces to deny Ugandans their legitimate rights, has raised concerns among opposition leaders [19]. In June 2023, the opposition launched consultations on proposals for the amendment of the Constitution to introduce reforms, arguing that serious changes are necessary for respecting the Constitution, conducting credible elections, submitting to civilian authority, and ensuring accountability in campaign financing [1].

Several opposition parties, including:

• National Unity Platform
• FDC (Katonga faction)
• Uganda People's Congress
• People's Progressive Party
• Democratic Party
• Alliance for National Transformation

These parties held a joint press conference at the FDC Katonga faction headquarters, where they agreed to rekindle their unity and pursue available means to take over government in the 2026 general elections [20]. The United Forces of Change called upon the people of Uganda to rise up and assert their will, emphasizing their commitment to non-violence and constitutional means [20]. However, some opposition leaders expressed concerns about potential fights and disagreements that have affected previous attempts at a unified opposition political front [20].

Opposition parties face various internal and external challenges, including:

1. Internal conflicts and factionalism within parties like Democratic Party (DP), Uganda People's Congress (UPC), and Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) [21, 23]
2. Financial constraints and high nomination fees [22]
3. Reports of arrests and intimidation of opposition party members [22]
4. Alleged suppression of opposition voices in the media by the Uganda Communications Commission (UCC) [22]
5. Growing confrontations with the government, heightening the risk of political violence [24]

Despite these challenges, some opposition political parties remain optimistic about reconciling their differences and mounting a formidable challenge against the ruling National Resistance Movement (NRM) in 2026 [23]. The opposition continues to call for electoral reforms, arguing that addressing long-standing grievances, such as the appointment of the electoral commission and political gerrymandering, is crucial for credible elections [1].

Electoral Reforms and Legal Framework

As Uganda prepares for the 2026 elections, calls for constitutional and electoral reforms have intensified [25]. A conference held in Kampala on March 5, 2024, identified four key areas for immediate action: rebuilding citizenship, economic franchising, securing independence and credibility of elections governing institutions, and shifting ownership of elections from the Electoral Commission to the citizens [25]. Experts argue that the 1995 Constitution no longer fulfills the country's democratic objectives and that further discussions on reforms are necessary to make Uganda more democratic [25].

Proposed electoral reforms include [1, 26, 27]:

1. Reinstating presidential term limits
2. Restricting cabinet positions to 21
3. Reviewing the appointment of the Electoral Commission
4. Removing army representatives from Parliament
5. Repealing the office of Prime Minister and that of district resident commissioner
6. Restricting the creation of new administration units
7. Creating more than 30 new constituencies for the 2026 polls
8. Ensuring the independence and security of tenure for the Electoral Commission
9. Implementing a transparent electronic results transmission process
10. Providing financial assistance from the treasury for political parties with parliamentary representation
11. Establishing a mechanism to monitor and prevent raids for funds from the central bank, ministries, and international assistance accounts during election campaigns

The government's attempts to regulate social media usage, including shutting down the internet during the 2021 elections and implementing a social media tax, have been met with criticism and protests [28, 29, 30]. The Electoral Commission's Strategic Plan (2022/23-2026/27) outlines the commission's goals and strategies, including the timely release of financial resources for a credible general election [3, 31]. However, concerns have been raised about potential political gerrymandering in the Law Reform Commission's plan to create more than 30 new constituencies for the 2026 polls [1].

Experts argue that organized domestic pressure for electoral reforms can only come from civil society, academia, and the media [32]. For meaningful reforms to take place, it would require dismantling the entire NRM state, starting afresh with a new, impartial, bureaucratic civil service, and restoring the 1995 Constitution to curb presidential powers [32]. Some suggest that electoral reforms could be initiated and overseen by the West under sustained pressure from key Western donor nations, including loan and aid cuts, and contracting foreigner citizens to head institutions such as the Electoral Commission, the Uganda police, and the Supreme Court [32].

Voter Registration and Election Integrity

The Ugandan Electoral Commission (EC) is responsible for organizing and conducting regular, free, and fair elections and referenda [31]. Every Ugandan has the right to participate in all electoral activities, including registration, updates, display, nominations, and polling exercises [31]. To vote, one must be registered and find their polling station using the Voter Data Management system [31]. Sample ballot papers use either a tick or a thumbprint to choose a candidate [31], and the BVVK is used for verifying voters at the polling station [31].

The EC has set dates for by-elections in Dokolo District for the District Woman MP and various Local Government Councils [31]. The Gazette of The Local Government Council By-Election Results 2021 provides the results of the 2021 Local Government Council By-Elections [31]. Voter statistics include 18,103,603 registered voters and 34,684 polling stations [31]. The Voter Education Handbook offers valuable information on the voting process [31]. The EC will seek to build upon the advancements made in the 2016 general elections as it prepares for upcoming by-elections [12].

However, concerns have been raised about the integrity of Uganda's electoral process:

1. The 2021 Ugandan elections were criticized for not meeting international standards, including allegations of arbitrary killings and disappearances of opposition supporters, disenfranchisement, voter intimidation, and harassment of the opposition, closure of social media websites, lack of transparency and independence in the Electoral Commission [18].
2. There are concerns about the level of civic awareness and education, with voters potentially influenced by basic necessities rather than political ideologies [6].
3. The National Resistance Movement (NRM) has initiated a nationwide tour to rebuild its party structure and register members, aiming to establish an authentic party register for internal elections [33]. However, NRM's internal elections have been characterized by chaos, intrigue, and big-man/politician influence, with allegations of undemocratic practices and violence [33].

The Impact of Social Media and Digital Campaigning

As Uganda approaches the 2026 elections, the impact of social media and digital campaigning is expected to play a significant role. Internet penetration in Uganda is projected to reach 50.8% by 2026, with 19.5 million users [28]. Currently, 47% of Ugandans use social media, primarily Facebook and WhatsApp, and this figure is expected to rise to 53.6% by 2026 [28]. Politicians, including the ruling party NRM, are increasingly leveraging social media for campaigning, with over UGX 3 billion spent on social media campaigns in the 2021 elections [28].

However, the spread of misinformation and disinformation on social media platforms remains a concern, potentially influencing the 2026 elections [28]. The youth population in Uganda, which constitutes 77% of the population under the age of 30, is active on social media and could significantly impact the election outcome [28]. Digital literacy remains low in Uganda, which could affect citizens' ability to critically evaluate information on social media platforms [28].

In the 2021 Ugandan presidential election campaign, social media played a crucial role, with Ugandans using platforms like WhatsApp, Facebook, and Twitter to:

1. Voice political grievances
2. Bypass traditional media channels, which have been dominated by Vision Group and Uganda Broadcasting Corporation, leading to biased reporting [29]
3. Provide direct information during political crises, such as the deadly riots in November 2020 [29]

However, the use of social media has also resulted in the spread of misinformation and propaganda, with journalists and politicians posting real-time events and activities [29]. The Ugandan government's attempts to control the internet and muzzle criticism have been met with resistance, with many Ugandans using VPNs to bypass the restrictions [30]. As the 2026 elections approach, the impact of social media and digital campaigning will likely be significant, with demographics and the fairness of the poll playing crucial roles in the outcome [29].

Security and Stability Concerns

Here is the content for the section "Security and Stability Concerns" of the article "PLU and the 2026 Uganda Elections: A Comprehensive Review":

As the 2026 Ugandan elections approach, security and stability concerns remain at the forefront. The country has a history of election-related violence, with the 2021 elections marred by deadly riots and allegations of human rights abuses by security forces [15, 17]. Key issues that could impact security and stability during the upcoming elections include:

1. The role of security forces: Uganda's security forces, led by President Museveni, have a significant influence on the country's politics and have been accused of interfering with elections and harassing opposition politicians [7, 14, 16]. Reforms to ensure appropriate training, equipment, and human rights standards for military personnel deployed for law enforcement tasks have been suggested [17].
2. Growing confrontations between the government and opposition: The concentration of power in President Museveni's hands and the use of armed forces to deny Ugandans their legitimate rights have raised concerns among opposition leaders [19]. The opposition's calls for constitutional and electoral reforms, coupled with the government's attempts to suppress opposition voices, heighten the risk of political violence [1, 22, 24].
3. The impact of social media: While social media platforms have provided a space for Ugandans to voice political grievances and bypass traditional media channels, they have also been used to spread misinformation and propaganda [28, 29]. The government's attempts to control the internet and muzzle criticism, such as shutting down the internet during the 2021 elections and implementing a social media tax, have been met with resistance and protests [28, 29, 30].

Ensuring a secure and stable environment for the 2026 elections will require addressing these concerns through meaningful reforms, dialogue between the government and opposition, and efforts to combat the spread of misinformation on social media platforms. The international community's involvement and electoral observation will also play a crucial role in promoting free and fair elections and preventing election-related violence [15].

International Community and Electoral Observation

The international community plays a crucial role in promoting free and fair elections in Uganda. In a recent study, the Abdul Latif Jameel Poverty Action Lab (J-PAL) conducted a randomized evaluation to measure the impact of letters warning of audits and punishment for election fraud, combined with smartphone vote-tally verification, on electoral irregularities [34]. The intervention led to significant improvements in electoral integrity:

• Monitoring letters decreased missing tallies by 10.6 percentage points when excluding polling centers in Northern Uganda [34].
• Adjacent digits in the tallies were reduced by 8 percentage points in polling stations that received monitoring letters [34].
• Polling stations that received any letter were 5.6 percentage points more likely to have posted vote tallies [34].

Furthermore, when using data from only polling centers that posted vote tallies, the study found that:

1. Monitoring letters reduced votes for the incumbent by 10 percent [34].
2. Punishment letters reduced votes for the incumbent by 8 percent [34].
3. Combination letters (monitoring and punishment) reduced votes for the incumbent by 16 percent [34].

These findings highlight the importance of international monitoring and the potential for targeted interventions to reduce electoral fraud and promote transparency. As Uganda prepares for the 2026 elections, the involvement of international observers and the implementation of similar measures could play a vital role in ensuring the integrity of the electoral process and strengthening public confidence in the results.

Conclusion

As Uganda looks ahead to the 2026 elections, the nation faces both challenges and opportunities in ensuring a free, fair, and transparent electoral process. The historical context, the role of security forces, opposition parties, electoral reforms, voter registration, and the impact of social media and digital campaigning will all play crucial roles in shaping the outcome of the elections. While concerns about security, stability, and the integrity of the electoral process persist, targeted interventions and the involvement of the international community have the potential to promote transparency and reduce electoral irregularities.

Ultimately, the success of the 2026 Ugandan elections will depend on the commitment of all stakeholders – the government, opposition parties, civil society, and the international community – to upholding democratic principles and ensuring that the will of the people is respected. By addressing key challenges, implementing meaningful reforms, and fostering a culture of transparency and accountability, Uganda can take significant steps towards building a more robust and inclusive democracy.

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